Chapel, I appreciate that you went to the effort to explain your point of view. I was contemplating whether to write a reply back regarding this subject. I will do this and will try to make this my last reply to clear things once and for all (from my perspective).
I never explicitly said it was better for the UK to leave EU under every circumstance. I focused on the negatives and the positives of this outcome and have mentioned repeatedly that I am interested to see what will happen in the future and what the overall outcome will be based on this decision. The difference between me and others is, I’m being open about this possibility and can see a side where it will work out well for the UK. Others are being emotional and not thinking about other facts besides of what they will lose out of it
It doesn’t work that way, EU giving the UK a similar or better deal. There are many other factors involved, I’m not going to touch on all of them. I will mostly focus on the trade agreements and what value there is in being a member of the EU Union. Being a member of the EU Union comes with great benefits, you can think of countries having your back when you are not doing well financially, the ability to travel freely between countries for work/travel/etc (without visum) and the trade agreements applying to all members of the EU Union cutting on the bureaucracy and uncertainty. There are other benefits, but I will keep this list short. The first benefit mostly benefits poor countries. Countries who are doing better financially are not getting gains out of this benefit. In fact, they pay other countries that are doing worse and lose money out of it. The second benefit does apply to the UK. I’m not sure how this can be substituted with the Brexit, this would be a big loss. With the third benefit, there are substitutes but it takes time and the substitutes are not 100% the same. Since the UK doesn’t fall under an umbrella for their trade agreements, they now have to create new agreements independently. This means that they have to create a new agreement with every country or a group of countries/regions. This takes time and the deal is not always the same (it can be worse or better) and there are no standards to follow. This is something they will have to do, it is part of the transition that will take years but it is possible to substitute it. This is how it normally goes. But, EU has different partners that are not part of the EU union. They still get similar trade and border benefits before becoming part of the EU union (I’m not sure about countries who don’t want to become part of the EU union). It is possible that the UK will make use of a similar agreement, but it depends on whether EU wants to make an example out of the UK. Logically I don’t expect EU to be difficult about this (whether as a body or individual countries who want to create new agreements). The economical gains are too strong to ignore for certain decisions. Eventually all involved parties will come around to create a trade agreement (in whatever form) to keep the balance of the economy as much as possible. I’m already reading reports about certain sectors in the Netherlands talking about making new agreements with the UK sectors.
Your example about import and export sounds similar to mine, only you’re already making predictions on how it will negatively impact the economy without any intervention. You touched on being modified briefly but that’s a big possibility. I would wait with making these type of predictions until it becomes more clear what will happen with the trade agreements exactly.
As mentioned already, there ARE (measurable) benefits to leaving EU but they will also lose benefits out of it. The question is, when looking through all the gains and losses, what is more worth it in the end? I think there is a possibility that the UK will turn out fine (read my other replies for that) but I can’t be 100% sure. That’s why we will need to wait and see how it will turn out. I have repeated this multiple times.
And lastly, my so-called bias or being selfish. The only time where I involved my bias or selfishness is when I brought up the example with the Netherlands and how these type of countries pay for others and cutting on costs to afford that. All the other things that I have mentioned? These are based on my studies and what I have learned. Contemporary economy (monetary and policy instruments, trade agreements, EU Union) and EU Law/International Law (I gave a very simplified version that is not exactly how I described but it has the same result in order to be brief about it on WYL).
Now, all of what I mentioned and talked about doesn’t take political parties into account. The parties who are ultra right and what they will do in the future. It seems that there are many who are more emotional because of this. They are afraid to be seen as racists and they are afraid of how this will affect the UK. This I give them right. This could be enough of a reason to ruin the UK. But, this is a different factor. It should not be associated with the UK exiting the EU union even though they have a lot to do with each other.
I hope that things are more clear with how I view things. I’m honestly surprised how some have reacted to what I have to say. I will try and be more careful with sharing my opinion on certain subjects. It might be better to not say anything in certain situations.